Session 18.2

ABSTRACT

The fragmentation of scientific communities regarding the link between climate change and migration gives rise to competing rationalizations, fueled by distinct disciplinary traditions, whose conclusions fuel the arguments used to justify public action. The tension between the absolutization and invisibility of the climate factor is not only played out in the fields of empirical analysis; it also permeates institutions where certain scientific representations are given the status of prescription. In parliamentary debates, the scientific formulations adopted by political communities are expurgated of their epistemic controversies, put to the service of public action that requires stabilized diagnoses, operational categories, and predictable effects. Uncertainties are thus reduced, models simplified, and causalities prioritized according to their ability to produce prescriptive norms. This shift constitutes one of the central drivers of the phenomenon of positivization. This contribution questions the conditions under which knowledge with partial or controversial foundations becomes the basis for public action. One of the mechanisms identified lies in the predilection of Western governments for quantified climate explanations, perceived as more easily integrated into public action mechanisms. In doing so, other types of data are underdetermined and relegated to the background, not because they are fallacious, but because they appear less "normable," that is, less able to produce standardizable prescriptions. However, this preference for objectifiable explanation produces a paradox: quantitative data, while they offer an apparent basis of rigor, remain insufficient to clearly determine the levers of immediate action. It follows that the method apparently most appropriate for action leads to its postponement, under cover of a persistent indeterminacy of causalities. In other words, the method deemed most suitable for governing uncertainty turns into a pretext for political temporization.

ABSTRACT

Central America faces population movements driven by overlapping vulnerabilities, such as economic crises, food insecurity, political instability, and environmental degradation. These are compounded by increasing exposure to disasters and climate change. Violence emerges as a critical factor, interacting with environmental drivers and reshaping mobility trajectories. Environmental stressors may lead to conflict; while pre-existing violence undermines disaster prevention, adaptation, and response. These intertwined dynamics have deepened humanitarian crises across the region, causing diverse mobility patterns: migration linked to slow-onset events like drought and sea-level rise; displacement from sudden-onset disasters such as hurricanes and landslides; and relocation as emergency response or risk reduction measure. (In)voluntary immobility also occurs when resources are lacking. Migrant caravans during the 2018-2020 droughts illustrate the complexity of these flows. This study explores how communities in exposed areas perceive the linkages between climate- and disaster-related impacts, displacement, and violence. Fieldwork conducted in six selected communities – three in El Salvador and three in Honduras – combined survey, interviews with key stakeholders, and direct observation. Findings show violence consistently undermines resilience, limits mobility options, and fuels unsafe population movements. Policies must integrate human mobility into adaptation and disaster preparedness while addressing structural violence.

ABSTRACT

Climate change, as a global change phenomenon, increasingly demands innovative adaptation measures to reduce the negative consequences on economy, environment and society. Even though climate change is presented as a long-term macro-scale process, the reality is often manifested and experienced as real-time local-level alterations in weather and climate patterns. In addition, socially and spatially these impacts are not homogenous. People who are poor and marginalized will experience the disproportionate share of adverse climate impacts. In worst case scenarios people with limited resources will most likely abandon uninhabitable and unproductive lands. This migration pattern is highly complex and dynamically linked to various climatic and non-climatic factors. More than a century ago, Ravenstein (1885) mentioned migration as about “life and progress”. In the present context of climate change, migration from climate stressed regions has been perceived as a risk management and adaptation strategy. The opposite is also true, since out-migration from climate-stressed regions can also be perceived as the failure to adapt to changing climate.

This presentation highlights the issue of climate migration and discusses the possibilities of appropriate risk management strategy through the lens of transformational adaptation. The regional focus of this paper is low-lying coastal Bangladesh, where millions of people face unpredictable rainfall patterns, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, storm surges, and tropical cyclones. People in the region are mostly engaged in various climate-sensitive sectors, such as farming and fishing; however, climate stress can restrict their livelihood opportunities to a minimum level. In addition, in this disaster-prone region, local people often get their experiences filled with extreme poverty, hunger, malnutrition, and diseases along with many other challenges, such as poor infrastructure. With inadequate food, insufficient water, and fewer opportunities, an increasing number of people may migrate or consider migration as a way to adapt to the changing climate.

Out of the sixty-four districts of Bangladesh, nineteen coastal districts are the major hotspots for climate-induced migration. Between 2011 and 2050, approximately 9.6 million people, excluding seasonal and temporary migrants, will be forced to migrate from the region. Many of these climate migrants remain poor or even trapped into further poverty even after migration with dismal livelihood consequences. Even though these are not distant realities and government recognizes migration in various climate policies and strategies, there is limited attention on how climate-induced migration should be addressed through the lens of transformational adaptation.

Since these migration efforts usually cross various juridical boundaries, government should address climate migration on a more sub-national level between districts. That means the initiatives and policies should not be very localized, rather while planning for adaptation, government and other development partners should consider part of the country with the insights on where people most likely can migrate as part of their overall coping strategy. Without proper acknowledgement of the challenges faced by migrants and understanding their situations from a broader perspective, society will likely experience further social and environmental challenges and leave societies with deepening inequality with the absence of livelihood opportunities. Therefore, in this context, regional planning can play an important role by combining multi-level and multi-scale collaborations and solutions.

Addressing climate migration appropriately is not just important for people at the individual level, but also critical for countries to achieve national and global development agenda, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

By investigating the linkages between climate change, migration, and the future of adaptation, using long-term field experiences this presentation asks three major questions: 1) under what conditions, who are at most risk of climate migration; 2) what are their most likely migration pathways for majority of climate migrants; and 3) what are the needed policies for climate risk management through the lens of transformational adaptation. This presentation provides critical insights for policy makers, government, development partners, as well as local communities. Even though it has a national focus, the discussions have strong relevance to other parts of world facing similar social, economic, and environmental challenges.