Session 19.1

ABSTRACT

In 2024, disasters triggered 45.8 million internal displacements and left 9.8 million people displaced at the end of the year - the highest figures ever recorded by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The movements cut across income levels: the United States recorded more than 11 million displacements following hurricanes and mass evacuations, while in Chad, floods alone triggered more displacements in 2024 than in the past 15 years combined. Disaster displacement took place against the backdrop of ever-rising temperatures in 2024.

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), human mobility has been acknowledged for over a decade, yet it continues to sit at the margins of climate negotiations. Recent developments in the loss and damage workstream, with the creation of the Loss and Damage Fund and the operationalisation of the Santiago Network opened pathways to address climate-related displacement more systematically and equitably.

This intervention will demonstrate the scale and global nature of disaster displacement. It will position displacement within the loss and damage conversation, highlighting opportunities under existing UNFCCC frameworks. It will offer recommendations for advancing integration of displacement, including through Nationally Determined Contributions, National Adaptation Plans, the Loss and Damage Fund and the Santiago Network.

ABSTRACT

Climate Migration or Adaptation? The dilemma of low-lying island residents The literature and agency reports often identify low-lying islands as the regions most affected by the impacts of climate change, with their inhabitants as climate migrants (refugees) who will inevitably have to move from their homes. In reality, however, the inhabitants of these islands are either emigrating for other reasons (most often in combination with economic ones) or prefer to stay in their homes in an attempt to adapt to the new changing conditions. Using the Maldives as a case study, we document through longitudinal studies conducted in 2013, 2017, and 2023 through repeated in- depth interviews with key stakeholders a thought shift from the assumption of mass migration due to climate change to a preference for staying in the country through adaptation, particularly through the construction of artificial islands. Governments of low-lying islands facing the impacts of climate change should not assume that forced migration is inevitable, as islanders can adapt locally and do not need to go abroad, as our research shows.

ABSTRACT

Consisting of over a thousand tiny, low-lying coral islands, the Maldives is extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise resulting from global warming. According to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report projections, the global mean sea level will likely rise between 0.43 meters (1.4 feet) and 0.84 meters (2.8 feet) by 2100, compared to the 1986-2005 average, depending on the emissions scenario. The highest point reported in the Maldives is in the Addu Atoll, 2.4 metres (7.9 ft), and the average height is around 1.5 metres (4.9 ft). Such circumstances require smart adaptation strategies, which include migration away from the islands that will become inundated and uninhabitable.

In 2012, former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed announced that authorities were considering purchasing land in Australia to relocate the whole population, which was widely reported in the international media. In ‘The Late Show’ with David Letterman, he compared the Maldives to Manhattan, showing that all islands and coastal areas in the world are in fact threatened by sea-level rise.

However, most Maldivians don’t believe their islands will disappear underwater. Rather than migrating abroad, they prefer to move internally, from islands that no longer meet their needs due to the negative impact of climate change. But internal migration is not simple either.

The presentation will analyse internal migration challenges from the perspective of the Maldives' climate change adaptation strategy. Examples to be presented were collected during three field trips to the Maldives in 2014, 2017, and 2023. Altogether, over 20 islands were visited, and more than 300 interviews were conducted. Although the aims of these field studies were not directly related to migration, the topic was brought up by the interviewees. The collected data have now been analyzed from the perspective of the subject of this presentation: lessons for the future climate migration.

In 2004, the Maldives suffered from the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. As a result, 10% of the population (8,000 people) was internally displaced, revealing various challenges related to future climate-induced migration. Although tsunamis are not related to climate change, they have a similar effect to sea-level rise. The islands become inundated, and the groundwater becomes contaminated. The internal displacement following the 2004 tsunami revealed the challenges of potential climate migration.

One of the main challenges revealed in the study was incompatibility between the emergency response framework provided by OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) and Maldivian culture or religion. Post-tsunami housing organization became extremely problematic and sparked conflicts.

Additionally, the lack of preparation and social consultation within both host and migrant communities resulted in the formation of segregated areas within the islands and discrimination against migrant communities.

No other field research, such as the one presented here, has been conducted in the Maldives on this scale, including remote islands. Through repeated visits to the Maldives over the past decade, we were able to examine the true challenges of internal migration in depth. This research reveals mistakes that have been made and should not be repeated. These include best practices for planned migration and the role of international development agencies. Special attention is given to the effects of unplanned displacement on children and youth in migrant communities.

Given the newly established Loss and Damage Fund and the need to allocate these funds effectively, it is essential to learn from past experiences. Funds for climate migration must be spent wisely and meet the actual needs. This presentation will offer practical recommendations on how to do so.