Session 8.2

Dr. Mrinalini Kumar

BIO

Dr. Mrinalini Kumar is working as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Sharda University, Greater Noida, India. She has completed her Bachelor's and Master's in Political Science from University of Delhi, India. She recently finished her PhD in Political Science from Amity University, Noida, India. Her thesis was titled, "Refugees in the Era of Climate Emergency: An Analysis of the Precarity of Small Island Developing States". Her research interests include climate politics, migration, human rights, gender politics, and visual narratives. She has also worked as a Field Investigator for a National Human Rights Commission project on the adoption process in India. She has participated in several conferences, presenting on topics such as capital-climate dissonance, the rhetoric of environmental protection, the emotional narrative of the Global South concerning climate change, media representations of climate refugees, and others. She has also been published in Web of Science journals and several poetry anthologies.

ABSTRACT

The climate has been constantly changing with the changing economic and political structures of human societies. However, this change has now picked a speed which is faster than the speed of adaptation of both the environment and human beings, creating a situation of ‘climate emergency’ and, therefore, a novel vantage point for perceiving nature and politics. The average temperature of the earth crossed the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024 for the first time. While climate change is an issue that knows no states or borders, the disproportionate threat of climate change and capabilities to face it create a conspicuous divide between the developed and developing world. Developing countries contribute the least to climate

change but bear the brunt of it, which manifests in the form of rising sea levels, desertification, floods, unpredictable weather patterns, disasters, and environmental degradation. The severity of these impacts is increasingly being experienced by several regions across the world, including South Asia. According to the World Bank, more than half of all South Asians were affected by one or more climate-related disasters in the last two decades. This makes the region especially vulnerable in this context, making it a crucial arena of study.

With India being the largest country in this region, consisting of an expansive and varied topography, it faces a large-scale impact of climate change. It affects the entire fabric of human lives, with displacement and migration emerging as the most critical issues. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reports that 1,18,000 people have been displaced by climate disasters in India in 2024 alone. Based on their calculations, 11,95,000 people have been displaced in India over a period of five years from 2020 to 2024. Climate Action Network South Asia has also projected that 45 million people may become climate-related migrants in India by 2050. Recent studies have also mapped a positive correlation between migration trends and vulnerability indices in India. This shows that climate migration is real and a pertinent issue that requires attention. Yet, India has no legal safety net for people displaced by climate change. There is no policy framework or law that addresses the unique challenges faced by them.

Due to this gap, two bills dealing with the subject of climate migration, i.e., ‘The Climate Migrants (Protection and Rehabilitation) Bill, 2022’ and ‘The Rehabilitation and Relocation of Persons Displaced Due To Climate Change Bill, 2022,’ were introduced in the Indian Parliament in 2022 by Pradyut Bordoloi, an MP from the state of Assam in India. However, both the bills were not able to see the light of the day as they did not even reach the stage of discussion. In later discussions, it was highlighted that displacement cannot be attributed to climate change due to the lack of an established study quantifying the connection between the two. Further, it was stated that India’s Disaster Management Act 2005 and the National Disaster Management Authority oversee the relief, recovery, and rehabilitation related to such disasters.

In this light, this paper seeks to question the narrative of climate migration in India and understand the legal gap in the recognition of climate migrants. In this endeavour, this paper will undertake content analysis of the two bills proposed by MP Pradyut Bordoloi, juxtaposing it with India’s disaster management framework (Disaster Management Act 2005, National Policy on Disaster Management 2009, National Disaster Management Plan 2018) to understand how and to what extent they recognise the realities of climate migrants. If feasible, an interview with MP Pradyut Bordoloi will also be conducted to understand the narrative behind these bills. Using this qualitative framework, this paper will highlight the gaps in the current discourse on climate migration in India as well as suggest solutions to bridge this gap. While the study will rely majorly on secondary data of bills, policy documents, and laws, attempts will be made to collect primary data as mentioned above. Given that India is a leading voice among developing countries, such a study can mobilise other vulnerable countries to safeguard their population as well. Such a proactive stance can prepare us for future challenges in both recognising displacement as well as remedying it. The objectives of this paper also align with the conference’s theme on building national capacity to support climate migrants.

Deki Choden

BIO

Deki Choden is a PhD candidate with an interdisciplinary background, specializing in climate change (im)mobility nexus, exploring how existing (im)mobility pattern is related to climate change. Her research focusses on the multifaceted nature of the nexus and the complexity linking them by bringing unique insights from one of the underexplored regions in the Global South, Bhutan.

ABSTRACT

A plethora of the academic literature on climate change and (im)mobility has theorized that climate change will result in increased human mobility, both domestically and internationally. However, there are disagreements surrounding the significance of climate change as a determining factor of human (im)mobility since it fails to capture the inherent complexity of (im)mobility decisions. Therefore, to bring a nuanced understanding on climate change-(im)mobility nexus, there is a need to shift our focus on the multi-dimensional influence of climate change on increasing (im)mobility trends, particularly from the geographies in the Global South that are understudied and consequently underrepresented. Through an explicit focus on the unique context of one of the remote villages in Bhutan, and the embodied realities of people’s mobility and immobility there, the study seeks to bring forth the context-specific nuanced interaction between (im)mobilities and climate change using a first-of-its-kind case study from Bhutan. Using a mixed-method approach, the study attempts to unpack the link between climate change and (im)mobility by highlighting how remittances generated through migrant’s mobility contributes to enhancing immobile’s adaptive capacity to climate change. Moving beyond the simplistic explanations of remittance´s contribution to climate adaptation, the findings from this study underscores the multifaceted nature of mobility and the complexities linking mobility and immobility. A nuanced comprehension of this link, I argue, can help disentangle the broader complexity of climate change-(im)mobility nexus. The findings from this study seeks to contribute to both contextual and scholarly understanding of climate change-(im)mobility nexus by bringing forward unique empirical evidence from an underexplored region of the Global South that confronts intertwined challenges of climate variability and out-migration. The findings from the study can serve as an evidence base for the development of more inclusive and equitable climate adaptation policies that are attuned to existing (im)mobility patterns in Bhutan and elsewhere.

Bradley Mellicker

BIO

Bradley Mellicker is the Head of IOM’s Climate Mobility Innovation Lab in Asia and the Pacific. Prior to this position, Brad was Senior Regional Emergency and Post Crisis Specialist in Asia and the Pacific, focusing on a series of issues linked to disaster risk reduction, emergency preparedness, humanitarian response, and recovery. Prior to that, he worked with IOM Iraq, overseeing large scale work related to internal displacement, stabilization, recovery and durable solutions. Earlier, Brad worked in the private sector supporting renewable energy projects in developing markets, held several other positions with IOM, including in Guinea, Cameroon, the Philippines, Haiti, and Timor-Leste, and with the Office of the Prosecutor at the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in the Hague. Brad holds BAs in History and Political Science, a Juris Doctor (law) and an MA in International Human Rights. He is admitted to practice law in Colorado, USA.

ABSTRACT

Asia and the Pacific is the global epicentre of disaster displacement, driven by frequent and intense hazards, rapid urbanization, and socioeconomic inequalities. From 2008 to 2022, over 225 million displacements were triggered by weather-related hazards in the region. Yet, despite the scale of the challenge, there is a persistent lack of spatially disaggregated, forward-looking risk data to guide action, investment, and policy. Most existing data focuses on historical events or current conditions, with limited predictive capacity or attention to local drivers. To address this, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), through its Climate Mobility Innovation Lab (CMIL), in partnership with the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute (UP RI) and the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), developed the Risk Index for Climate Displacement (RICD).

The RICD is a forward-looking decision-support tool that quantifies climate-related displacement risk and provides actionable insights for governments, humanitarian actors, and development partners. It also informs the design of the Climate Catalytic Fund (CCF), a blended finance mechanism supporting locally led climate action in high-risk areas.

The RICD operates at two levels:

1. Macro level: The index applies the IPCC AR5 framework using open, spatially disaggregated data. Subnational risk scores are calculated within countries across Asia and the Pacific to identify climate displacement hotspots. These scores are cross-analysed with historical displacement data to better understand patterns and inform national planning, prioritization, and resource allocation. Pilots in Indonesia and the Philippines highlighted peri-urban flood zones, informal settlements, and coastal communities as risk hotspots.

2. Micro level: The RICD zooms into selected municipalities to assess the lived experience of displacement risk. It combines geotagged household survey data (from both displaced and non-displaced households) with interviews and focus groups. This enables deeper analysis of drivers, triggers, coping strategies, and barriers to mobility.

Statistical analysis across four pilot sites identified three key predictors of displacement: housing damage, asset loss, and tenure insecurity. Households with significant housing damage were more likely to be displaced. Secure land or home ownership was associated with staying. Conversely, loss of productive assets (e.g. crops, income) was negatively associated with mobility—suggesting some households are trapped in place, unable to relocate even when exposed to risk. These trends were consistent across sites and highlight the complex link between vulnerability and choice in climate mobility. The RICD also values qualitative insight to contextualize risk and shape more grounded responses. In many locations, displaced and non-displaced households used similar adaptation strategies—like elevating homes or improving drainage—but had unequal access to support. Displacement was often triggered by cumulative impacts, safety concerns, or lack of recovery options. Meanwhile, fear of losing land, poverty, or weak support networks kept others from moving, despite persistent threats.

Beyond methodology, the RICD is designed to translate risk data into action. Outputs include dashboards, hotspot factsheets, and profiles tailored for governments, donors, and local actors. Combining predictive analytics, spatial mapping, and field data, the RICD supports anticipatory action, relocation planning, and inclusive adaptation. It is already seen by stakeholders as a scalable model that balances technical rigour with operational relevance.

The RICD’s co-creation model is also central to its success. CMIL convenes a regional network of over 20 scientists, policymakers, and technical experts who contribute to tool design and ensure alignment with national priorities. This enhances ownership, uptake, and cross-sector collaboration. Looking ahead, CMIL plans further upgrades to RICD: improved predictive modelling, new modules for country specific analysis, and analytics to assess the impact of adaptation measures. These updates will support broader application and deeper insights into climate-related mobility.

This presentation will explore the RICD’s development, structure, and pilot results. It will highlight key indicators, discuss challenges—such as data limitations and modelling complexity—and showcase use cases, including applications under the CCF and in national policy planning. As climate impacts accelerate, so must our ability to anticipate and act. The RICD shows how innovation and data can transform responses to climate mobility—from reactive crisis management to risk-informed, forward-looking resilience. By integrating displacement foresight into planning and investment, the RICD offers a replicable, evidence-based model for regions confronting climate-driven mobility, and a timely contribution to protecting vulnerable communities.

Thannaletchimy Housset

BIO

Thannaletchimy Housset, PhD is an international consultant specialising in internal displacement, labor market policies and trade liberalization, with over 13 years of professional experience. Currently based in Geneva, she is consulting with IOM’s Climate Mobility Innovation Lab in Asia and the Pacific, supporting the development of the Risk Index for Climate Displacement (RICD). Previously, she was Research Manager and Monitoring Manager (Asia Pacific) at the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). Her work focused on assessing the duration and economic cost of internal displacement and integrating displacement indicators into disaster loss reporting under the Sendai Framework. Adept at bridging science, policy, and human rights, she had previously held positions as Policy Advisor (Employment and Gender) at the International Organization for Employers (IOE) and International Trade Economist at SEURECO-ERASME. Holding a PhD, she remains deeply engaged in global partnerships to inform evidence-based policymaking that improves lives.

ABSTRACT

Asia and the Pacific is the global epicentre of disaster displacement, driven by frequent and intense hazards, rapid urbanization, and socioeconomic inequalities. From 2008 to 2022, over 225 million displacements were triggered by weather-related hazards in the region. Yet, despite the scale of the challenge, there is a persistent lack of spatially disaggregated, forward-looking risk data to guide action, investment, and policy. Most existing data focuses on historical events or current conditions, with limited predictive capacity or attention to local drivers.

To address this, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), through its Climate Mobility Innovation Lab (CMIL), in partnership with the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute (UP RI) and the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), developed the Risk Index for Climate Displacement (RICD). The RICD is a forward-looking decision-support tool that quantifies climate-related displacement risk and provides actionable insights for governments, humanitarian actors, and development partners. It also informs the design of the Climate Catalytic Fund (CCF), a blended finance mechanism supporting locally led climate action in high-risk areas.

The RICD operates at two levels:

• Macro level: The index applies the IPCC AR5 framework using open, spatially disaggregated data. Subnational risk scores are calculated within countries across Asia and the Pacific to identify climate displacement hotspots. These scores are cross-analysed with historical displacement data to better understand patterns and inform national planning, prioritization, and resource allocation. Pilots in Indonesia and the Philippines highlighted peri-urban flood zones, informal settlements, and coastal communities as risk hotspots.

• Micro level: The RICD zooms into selected municipalities to assess the lived experience of displacement risk. It combines geotagged household survey data (from both displaced and non-displaced households) with interviews and focus groups. This enables deeper analysis of drivers, triggers, coping strategies, and barriers to mobility.

Statistical analysis across four pilot sites identified three key predictors of displacement: housing damage, asset loss, and tenure insecurity. Households with significant housing damage were more likely to be displaced. Secure land or home ownership was associated with staying. Conversely, loss of productive assets (e.g. crops, income) was negatively associated with mobility—suggesting some households are trapped in place, unable to relocate even when exposed to risk. These trends were consistent across sites and highlight the complex link between vulnerability and choice in climate mobility.

The RICD also values qualitative insight to contextualize risk and shape more grounded responses. In many locations, displaced and non-displaced households used similar adaptation strategies—like elevating homes or improving drainage—but had unequal access to support. Displacement was often triggered by cumulative impacts, safety concerns, or lack of recovery options. Meanwhile, fear of losing land, poverty, or weak support networks kept others from moving, despite persistent threats.

Beyond methodology, the RICD is designed to translate risk data into action. Outputs include dashboards, hotspot factsheets, and profiles tailored for governments, donors, and local actors. Combining predictive analytics, spatial mapping, and field data, the RICD supports anticipatory action, relocation planning, and inclusive adaptation. It is already seen by stakeholders as a scalable model that balances technical rigour with operational relevance.

The RICD’s co-creation model is also central to its success. CMIL convenes a regional network of over 20 scientists, policymakers, and technical experts who contribute to tool design and ensure alignment with national priorities. This enhances ownership, uptake, and cross-sector collaboration.

Looking ahead, CMIL plans further upgrades to RICD: improved predictive modelling, new modules for country-specific analysis, and analytics to assess the impact of adaptation measures. These updates will support broader application and deeper insights into climate-related mobility.

This presentation will explore the RICD’s development, structure, and pilot results. It will highlight key indicators, discuss challenges—such as data limitations and modelling complexity—and showcase use cases, including applications under the CCF and in national policy planning.

As climate impacts accelerate, so must our ability to anticipate and act. The RICD shows how innovation and data can transform responses to climate mobility—from reactive crisis management to risk-informed, forward-looking resilience. By integrating displacement foresight into planning and investment, the RICD offers a replicable, evidence-based model for regions confronting climate-driven mobility, and a timely contribution to protecting vulnerable communities.